A psychological barrier was crossed: Russia, long open about its neo-imperial ambitions, put to the test not only Poland’s resilience but that of the entire NATO alliance.
The first response showed unity in the face of danger, but the real test still lies ahead.
Wednesday's drone attack was not, by itself, a radical turning point. Russia’s Shahed-136/Geran-2 kamikaze drones, along with their decoy variants, have repeatedly crossed into Polish airspace in the past. Until now, however, they had not been shot down.
Other NATO states—Romania most notably—have often chosen to look the other way. What made this incident a true milestone was the first active military response by NATO forces in nearly four years, breaking the cycle of passivity.
Even taking into account possible disruptions from Ukrainian electronic warfare, it is hard to see the incursion of 19 drones—some crossing from Ukraine, others directly from Belarus—as accidental.
The more interesting question is the cost of Poland’s and NATO’s response. The operation involved Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, an Italian E-550A AWACS, an A330 MRTT tanker, and a Polish Saab 340 AEW&C. The estimated cost: several million Polish zlotys per hour.
Neutralizing a Russian drone worth just PLN 35,000 (around EUR 8,200, USD 9,600) required deploying a full spectrum of allied capabilities.
Security, of course, has no price tag. But one must ask whether it would be more effective to stop Russia’s drone production at the source.
The simplest path would be to arm Ukraine to strike the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Russia’s Chelyabinsk region, where workers from the Global South assemble these drones.
Equally important is learning from Ukraine’s experience in countering drone swarms numbering in the tens of thousands—and adapting those lessons to Poland’s defence posture.
This process is already underway, but Wednesday's incident should accelerate it.
Russia’s aggression, though still below the threshold of open war, is a layered stress test—for society, political leaders, and military procedures alike.
It also supplies Moscow with valuable intelligence on weak points that can be exploited later in disinformation campaigns and psychological warfare.
The timing—just days before the Zapad-2025 joint Russian-Belarusian military drills—suggests the exercises have already begun, starting with a “reality check” for NATO’s eastern flank.
How many troops will actually participate in these exercises remains unclear. The official figure is 12,000, but analysts say the real number is closer to 30,000.
Since 2013, Russia has consistently understated its troop levels by six to 15 times. While a direct kinetic attack on NATO’s eastern flank remains unlikely given Moscow’s involvement in Ukraine, hybrid operations are clearly ramping up.
No clearer signal for mobilization in the face of rising global uncertainty could have been sent. The ball is now in the decision-makers’ court, NATO included.
Like a vampire, the Kremlin feeds on every sign of weakness, driving it to cross one red line after another. If we fail to draw lessons from this episode—and simply accept Russian drones over Poland—we will have lost the battle before it even begins.
Leon Pińczak
The author is a security and international affairs analyst at the Polityka Insight think tank in Warsaw.